{{Short description|Major surges of democracy in history}} {{Use dmy dates|date=February 2026}} {{Democracy}} In [[political science]], the '''waves of democracy''' or '''waves of democratization''' are major surges of [[democracy]] that have occurred in history. Although the term appears at least as early as 1887,{{Cite journal |jstor = 2139185|title = The Cause of Secession|journal = Political Science Quarterly|volume = 2|issue = 3|pages = 470–493|last1 = Morse|first1 = Anson D.|year = 1887|doi = 10.2307/2139185}} it was popularized by [[Samuel P. Huntington]], a political scientist at [[Harvard University]], in his article published in the ''[[Journal of Democracy]]'' and further expounded in his 1991 book, ''[[The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century]]''. Democratization waves have been linked to sudden shifts in the distribution of power among the great powers, which created openings and incentives to introduce sweeping domestic reforms.{{Cite journal|last=Gunitsky|first=Seva|date=2014|title=From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century|url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/from-shocks-to-waves-hegemonic-transitions-and-democratization-in-the-twentieth-century/DC80A16B8DE79A7498B82B7F80FBE111|journal=International Organization|language=en|volume=68|issue=3|pages=561–597|doi=10.1017/S0020818314000113|s2cid=232254486|issn=0020-8183|url-access=subscription}}{{Cite book|url=https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691172330/aftershocks|title=Aftershocks|last=Gunitsky|first=Seva|date=2017|publisher=Princeton University Press |isbn=978-0-691-17233-0}} Scholars debate the precise number of democratic waves. Huntington describes three waves: the first "slow" wave of the 19th century, a second wave after [[World War II]], and a third wave beginning in the mid-1970s in southern Europe, followed by Latin America and Asia. Though his book does not discuss the collapse of the [[Soviet bloc]], a number of scholars have taken the "Third Wave" to include the [[Revolutions of 1989|democratic transitions of 1989–1991]].{{Cite journal |last1=Haggard |first1=Stephan |last2=Kaufman |first2=Robert R. |date=2016 |title=Democratization During the Third Wave |journal=Annual Review of Political Science |language=en |volume=19 |issue=1 |pages=125–144 |doi=10.1146/annurev-polisci-042114-015137 |issn=1094-2939|doi-access=free }} [[Seva Gunitsky]] of the [[University of Toronto]] has referred to 13 waves, from the [[Atlantic Revolutions]] of the 18th century to the [[Arab Spring]] of the 21st.{{Cite journal|last=Gunitsky|first=Seva|date=2018|title=Democratic Waves in Historical Perspective|journal=Perspectives on Politics|volume=16|issue=3|pages=634–651|doi=10.1017/S1537592718001044|s2cid=149523316|issn=1537-5927}} Scholars have also noted that the appearance of "waves" of democracy largely vanishes when women's suffrage is taken into account. Some countries change their positions quite dramatically: [[Switzerland]], which is typically included as part of the first wave, did not grant women the right to vote until 1971.Paxton, Pamela. (2000). "Women's Suffrage in the Measurement of Democracy: Problems of Operationalization." ''Studies in Comparative International Development'' 35(3): 92–111 ==Definition== In his 1991 book, ''[[The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century|The Third Wave]]'', Huntington defined a democratic wave as "a group of transitions from nondemocratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite directions during that period of time." (Huntington 1991, 15) Mainwaring and Aníbal Pérez-Liñán (2014, 70) offer a similar definition: "any historical period during which there is a sustained and significant increase in the proportion of competitive regimes (democracies and semi-democracies)."{{Cite book|url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/democracies-and-dictatorships-in-latin-america/9CC511C619C452594287644A905994A1|title=Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, Survival, and Fall|first1=Scott|last1=Mainwaring|first2=Aníbal|last2=Pérez-Liñán|date=21 September 2014|publisher=Cambridge University Press|doi=10.1017/CBO9781139047845 |isbn=9780521190015 }} Gunitsky (2018) defines a democratic wave as a clustering of attempted or successful democratic transitions, coupled with linkages among the transitions in that cluster. ==Huntington's three waves== [[File:Waves of democracy.png|thumb|right|The three waves of democracy]] ===First=== The first wave of democracy (1828–1926) began in the early 19th century when [[suffrage]] was granted to the majority of white males in the United States ("[[Jacksonian democracy]]"). This was followed by France, Britain, Canada, Australia, Italy, and Argentina, and a few others, before 1900. At its peak, after the breakup of the Russian, German, Austrian, and Ottoman empires in 1918, the first wave saw 29 democracies in the world. Reversal began in 1922, when [[Benito Mussolini]] rose to power in Italy. The collapse primarily hit newly formed democracies, which could not stand against the aggressive rise of expansionist communist, fascist, and militaristic authoritarian or totalitarian movements that systematically rejected democracy. The nadir of the first wave came in 1942, when the number of democracies in the world dropped to a mere twelve.Huntington, ''Third Wave'', pp. 17–18.For a detailed outline history, see Peter Stearns, ''Encyclopedia of World History'' (6th ed. 2001), pp. 413–801. For a narrative history, J. A. S. Grenville, ''A history of the world in the 20th century'' (1994) pp. 3–254. ===Second=== The second wave began following the Allied victory in [[World War II]], and crested nearly 20 years later, in 1962, with 36 recognised democracies in the world. The second wave ebbed as well at this point, and the total number dropped to 30 democracies between 1962 and the mid-1970s. ===Third=== The third wave began with the 1974 [[Carnation Revolution]] in [[Portugal]], the fall of the [[Greek junta|Greek Junta]] and the late-1970s [[Spanish transition to democracy]]. This was followed by the historic democratic transitions in Latin America in the 1980s, Asia-Pacific countries ([[Philippines]], [[South Korea]], and [[Taiwan]]) from 1986 to 1988, Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and sub-Saharan Africa, beginning in 1989. The expansion of democracy in some regions was stunning. In Latin America, only Colombia, Costa Rica, and Venezuela were democratic by 1978, and only Cuba and Haiti remained authoritarian by 1995, when the wave had swept across twenty countries.{{cite journal|last=Schenoni, Luis and Scott Mainwaring|title=Hegemonic Effects and Regime Change in Latin America|journal=Democratization|volume=26|issue=2|pages=269–287|doi=10.1080/13510347.2018.1516754|year=2019|hdl=10366/142388 |s2cid=150297685|url=http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-2-1fiekeuhevswv3|hdl-access=free}} Huntington points out that three-fourths of the new democracies were Roman Catholic;In chronological order: Portugal, Spain, nine new democracies in Latin America, Poland and Hungary. most Protestant countries already were democratic. He emphasizes the [[Second Vatican Council|Vatican Council of 1962]], which turned the Church from defenders of the old established order into an opponent of [[totalitarianism]].Huntington, "Democracy's Third Wave" (1991) p. 13 Countries undergoing or having undergone a transition to democracy during a wave are sometimes subject to [[democratic backsliding]]. Political scientists and theorists believe that {{as of|2003|lc=yess}}, the third wave had crested and would soon begin to ebb, just as its predecessors did in the first and second waves.{{cite journal|last=Zagorski|first=Paul W.|title=Democratic Breakdown in Paraguay and Venezuela: The Shape of Things to Come for Latin America?|journal=Armed Forces & Society|year=2003|volume=30|issue=1|pages=87–116|doi=10.1177/0095327X0303000104|s2cid=145056898}} In the period immediately following the onset of the "war on terror" after the 11 September 2001 attacks on the United States, some backsliding ensued. How significant or lasting that erosion is remains a subject of debate.Little AT, Meng A. Measuring Democratic Backsliding. PS: Political Science & Politics. 2024;57(2):149–161. doi:10.1017/S104909652300063X Third-wave countries, including Portugal, Spain, South Korea, and Taiwan became fully consolidated democracies rather than backsliding. As of 2020, they even had stronger democracies than many counterparts with a much longer history as democratic countries.{{Cite web|url = https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2020|title = Democracy Index 2020}} ==Arab Spring== Experts have associated the collapse of several dictatorships in the [[Middle East]] and [[North Africa]], a phenomenon known as the [[Arab Spring]], with the events that followed the fall of the [[Soviet Union]] in Eastern Europe. The similarity between the two phenomena inspired hope for a fourth wave of [[democratization]]. A few months after the apparent beginning of the transition, most of the Arab political openings closed, causing an inevitable pullback. In particular in Egypt, the democratically elected government pushed for an authoritarian Islamist agenda, and in opposition to the rule of law, quickly issued a constitutional declaration that gave them sweeping powers over the [[Judiciary of Egypt|state's judicial system]] until the [[Egyptian Constitution of 2012|new constitution]] was passed.{{Cite news|title=Citing Deadlock, Egypt's Leader Seizes New Power and Plans Mubarak Retrial (Published 2012)|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/23/world/middleeast/egypts-president-morsi-gives-himself-new-powers.html|date=22 November 2012|access-date=29 November 2025}}{{Cite web|title=Morsy issues new constitutional declaration|url=https://www.birkeundnymphe.noho.st/morsy-issues-new-constitutional-declaration/|website=Egypt Independent|date=22 November 2012|access-date=29 November 2025|first=Egypt|last=Independent}} This resulted in mass protests, and eventually the [[2013 Egyptian coup d'état|overthrow of Morsi]] by the Egyptian military. The main causes of the regression and crisis in all the affected countries are attributed to corruption, unemployment, social injustice, and autocratic [[political system]]s.{{citation needed|date=January 2026}} Despite the apparently unsolvable situation, the [[United Nations|UN]], under the administration of [[Ban Ki-moon]], tried to work as a mediator between the governments and the protesters. Political scholar [[Larry Diamond]] has claimed that the role of the United States in the democratic transition of the Arab world was fundamental.{{Cite magazine|url = https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2011-05-22/fourth-wave-or-false-start|title = A Fourth Wave or False Start?|website = Foreign Affairs| date=23 May 2011 |access-date = 4 March 2016| last1=Diamond | first1=Larry }} [[Digital media]] played a large role in creating favorable conditions for uprisings, helped to publicize key igniting events, and then facilitated those uprisings and their diffusion. But digital media did not do this alone or as suddenly as some observers have claimed. The story of the Arab Spring, according to Howard and Hussain, began over a decade ago as internet access and mobile phones began to diffuse rapidly through North Africa and the Middle East. The citizens that could afford internet access, the wealthy and powerful, mostly, played a huge role in the [[Egypt]], [[Tunisia]], and [[Bahrain]] [[Rebellion|uprisings]]. Over time, online criticism of governments became more public and common, setting the stage for the Arab Spring. Digital media also allowed women and minorities to enter political discussions, and ultimately, the ensuing protests and revolutions as well.{{Cite book |last= Howard |first= Phillip N. |date= 2013 |title= Democracy's Fourth Wave? Digital Media and the Arab Spring |series=Oxford Studies in Digital Politics |url= http://philhoward.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Democracys-Fourth-Wave-First-3-Chapters.pdf |publisher=Oxford University Press|access-date= 13 June 2017 |archive-date= 1 November 2021 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20211101232828/https://philhoward.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Democracys-Fourth-Wave-First-3-Chapters.pdf |url-status= dead }} Whether or not the Arab Spring counts as a distinct democratic wave is challenged by scholars on empirical grounds, as Tunisia is the only Arab Spring nation that successfully consolidated into a semi-stable democratic state following its uprising (according to the democracy-evaluating organization Freedom House, as of 2020).[https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores "Countries and Territories"]. Freedom House. Retrieved 24 September 2020. Since the accession of [[Kais Saied]] to the office of president, Tunisia has seen a decline in the democratic freedoms enjoyed by its citizens.{{cite news |author1=Ishaan Tharoor |title=The West shrugs as a democracy dies |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/01/tunisia-saied-democracy-crackdown/ |newspaper=Washington Post |access-date=4 April 2024 |date=1 March 2023}} == 2010s–present == From the beginning of the 2010s and after the [[Great Recession]], worldwide pro-democracy and anti-[[democratic backsliding]] protests have focused on [[racial equality]], [[human rights]], freedom, the fight against [[police brutality]], and [[social justice]]. {{div col}} * [[Anti-austerity movement in Greece]] * [[Colour revolution]] * [[Occupy movement]] * [[2010 Spanish general strike]] * [[2010 Kyrgyz Revolution]] * [[Arab spring]] * [[2011 Macedonian protests]] * [[2011 United States public employee protests]] * [[2011 Chinese pro-democracy protests]] ** [[Wukan protests]] * [[Gezi Park protests]] * [[Euromaidan]] * [[Protests against Nicolás Maduro]] * [[2014 Hong Kong protests]] * [[2014 Vietnam anti-China protests]] * [[2015 Macedonian protests]] * [[2016 Macedonian protests]] * [[Protests against Donald Trump]] * [[Protests against Daniel Ortega]] * [[2018 Vietnam protests]] * [[2018 Haitian protests]] * [[2018–2024 Arab protests]] * [[Sardines movement]] * [[Protests against Elon Musk]] * [[2019–2020 Hong Kong protests]] * [[2019–2022 Chilean protests]] * [[2019–2020 Iranian protests]] * [[2019–2020 Maltese protests]] * [[2021–2022 Iranian protests]] * [[End SARS]] * [[2020 Polish LGBT protests]] * [[17A|2020 Argentine protests]] * [[2020–2021 Belarusian protests]] * [[2020–2021 Thai protests]] * [[George Floyd protests]] * [[2020 Kyrgyz Revolution]] * [[2021 Greek protests]] * [[2021 Cuban protests]] * [[2021–2022 Afghan protests]] * [[2021–2023 Myanmar protests]] * [[Protests against the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present)]] * [[Protests against responses to the COVID-19 pandemic]] * [[2022 Kazakh protests]] * [[2022 Sri Lankan protests]] * [[Mahsa Amini protests]] * [[2022 COVID-19 protests in China]] * [[2023 Polish protests]] * [[2023–2024 Georgian protests]] * [[March 2024 Cuban protests]] * [[July Uprising|2024 Bangladesh uprising]] * [[2024–present Serbian anti-corruption protests]] * [[2024–2025 Georgian protests]] * [[Protests against the second Trump administration]] ** [[No Kings protests]] ** [[Response to the Department of Government Efficiency]] * [[2025 Slovak protests]] * [[2025 Turkish protests]] * [[2025 Indonesian protests]] * [[2025 Nepalese Gen Z protests]] * [[2025–2026 Philippine anti-corruption protests]] * [[2025 Moroccan Gen Z protests]] * [[2025 Cameroonian protests]] * [[2025–2026 Iranian protests]] * [[2026 Ugandan protests]] * [[Flamingo Revolution]] * [[Gen Z protests]] {{div col end}} ==Gunitsky's 13 waves== In a 2018 study in ''[[Perspectives on Politics]]'', [[Seva Gunitsky]] of the [[University of Toronto]] identifies 13 waves of democracy. His main criterion is rejection of [[autocracy]]. By contrast, Huntington used the much narrower criterion of voting rights for the majority of men. # [[Age of Revolution|Atlantic Wave]] (1776–1798) # [[Spanish American wars of independence|Latin American wars of independence]] (1809–1824) # [[Revolutions during the 1820s|First Constitutional Wave]] (1820–1821) # [[Revolutions of 1830|Romantic-Nationalist Wave]] (1830–1831) # [[Revolutions of 1848|Spring of Nations]] (1848–1849) # [[Revolutionary wave in the 20th century|Second Constitutional Wave]] (1905–1912) # [[Revolutions of 1917–1923|Post-WWI Wave]] (1919–1922) # [[Revolutionary wave in the 20th century|Post-WWII Wave]] (1945–1950) # [[Decolonisation of Africa|African Decolonization Wave]] (1956–1968) # [[The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century|Modernization Wave]], also known as the Third Wave (1974–1988) # [[Revolutions of 1989|Post-Soviet Wave]] (1989–1992) # [[Colour revolution]]s (2000–2007) # [[Arab Spring]] (2011–2012) ==See also== * [[Democratic backsliding]] * [[Democratic transition]] * [[History of democracy]] ==References== {{reflist}} ==Further reading== * Diamond, Larry. '' Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency'' (2019){{ISBN?}} ** excerpted in Diamond, "The Global Crisis of Democracy: As China and Russia attack free governments and push strongman rule, the U.S. has gone silent—and a new tide of authoritarianism is gathering" [https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-global-crisis-of-democracy-11558105463 ''Wall Street Journal'' May 17, 2019] * Diamond, Larry. "Facing up to the democratic recession." ''Journal of Democracy'' 26.1 (2015): 141–155. [https://web.archive.org/web/20180819182910/https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/sites/default/files/Diamond-26-1_0.pdf Online] * Huntington, Samuel P. "Democracy's third wave." ''Journal of democracy'' 2.2 (1991): 12–34. [https://www.ned.org/docs/Samuel-P-Huntington-Democracy-Third-Wave.pdf online] * Huntington, Samuel P. "After twenty years: the future of the third wave." ''Journal of democracy'' 8.4 (1997): 3–12. [http://pscourses.ucsd.edu/ps200b/Huntington%20After%20Twenty%20Years%20--%20The%20Future%20of%20the%20Third%20Wave.pdf online] * Huntington, Samuel P. ''The third wave: Democratization in the late twentieth century'' (U of Oklahoma Press, 1993).{{ISBN?}} * Mainwaring, Scott and Fernando Bizzarro. "The Fates of Third-Wave Democracies" ''Journal of Democracy'' 30#1 (January 2019), pp. 99–113 [https://muse.jhu.edu/article/713726/summary Online] * Martell, Luke. "The third wave in globalization theory." ''International Studies Review'' 9.2 (2007): 173–196. [https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/c8dc/d4b161ea8c3cd2bcccc6664aae2008764503.pdf online] * {{cite book|author1=John Markoff|author2=Markoff John|author3=Professor John Markoff|title=Waves of Democracy: Social Movements and Political Change|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=-EWi759F4PoC|date=7 February 1996|publisher=Pine Forge Press|isbn=978-0-8039-9019-7}} * John Markoff, ''Waves of Democracy: Social Movements and Political Change'', Second Edition (2015). * Puddington, Arch, and Tyler Roylance. "The Freedom House survey for 2016: the dual threat of populists and autocrats." ''Journal of Democracy'' 28.2 (2017): 105–119. [https://muse.jhu.edu/article/653380/summary online] * Schenkkan, Nate, and Sarah Repucci. "The Freedom House Survey for 2018: Democracy in Retreat" ''Journal of Democracy'' 30#2 (April 2019) pp. 100–114 [https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2019.0028 online] * Zagorski, Paul. W. "[http://afs.sagepub.com/content/30/1/87.abstract Democratic Breakdown in Paraguay and Venezuela: The Shape of Things to Come from Latin America?]," [[Armed Forces & Society]] 30#1 (2003): 87–116 {{2020s in history}} [[Category:1880s neologisms]] [[Category:1880s quotations]] [[Category:Democracy]] [[Category:Democratization]] [[Category:Jacksonian democracy]]