{{Short description|Forced replacement of one government with another}}
{{distinguish|Regime shift|Government formation|Election|Peaceful transition of power}}
{{For|the book|Regime Change (book){{!}}''Regime Change'' (book)}}
'''Regime change''' is the partly forcible or coercive replacement of one government [[regime]] with another. It is typically understood as a violation of the [[sovereignty]] of the target state. Regime change may replace all or part of the [[State (polity)|state's]] most critical leadership system, administrative apparatus, or [[bureaucracy]]. Regime change may occur through domestic processes, such as [[revolution]], [[coup d'état|coup]], or reconstruction of government following [[Failed state|state failure]] or [[civil war]].<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Hale|first=Henry E.|date=2013-05-10|title=Regime Change Cascades: What We Have Learned from the 1848 Revolutions to the 2011 Arab Uprisings|journal=Annual Review of Political Science|volume=16|issue=1|pages=331–353|doi=10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-212204|issn=1094-2939|doi-access=free}}</ref> It can also be imposed on a country by foreign actors through invasion, [[Interventionism (politics)|overt]] or [[covert interventions]], or [[coercive diplomacy]].<ref name=":0">{{Cite book|last=Downes|first=Alexander B.|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=c-giEAAAQBAJ|title=Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong|date=2021|publisher=Cornell University Press|isbn=978-1-5017-6115-7|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last1=Levin|first1=Dov|last2=Lutmar|first2=Carmela|date=2020|title=Violent Regime Change: Causes and Consequences|url=https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-1954|website=Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics|language=en|doi=10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.1954|isbn=978-0-19-022863-7}}</ref> Regime change may entail the construction of new institutions, the restoration of old institutions, and the promotion of new [[Ideology|ideologies]].<ref name=":0" />

== Types ==
=== Internal regime change ===
Regime change can be precipitated by revolution or a [[coup d'état]]. For example, the [[French Revolution]], the [[Russian Revolution]], and the [[Iranian Revolution]].<ref>Marvin Zonis quoted in Wright, ''Sacred Rage'' 1996, p.61</ref>

=== Foreign-imposed regime change ===
Commonly referred to as ''regime change wars'', foreign-imposed regime change is the deposing of a regime by a foreign state, which can be achieved through covert means or by direct military action. Interstate war can also culminate into a foreign-imposed regime change for the losers, as occurred for the [[Axis powers]] during [[World War II]] ([[Nazi Germany]], [[Fascist Italy]], and the [[Empire of Japan]]).<ref>{{Citation |first=Russell F |last=Weigley |title=The American Way of War: A History of United States Military Strategy and Policy |year=1977 |pages=145, 239, 325, 382, 391}}.</ref><ref>{{Citation |first=Sidney |last=Pash |chapter=Containment, Rollback and the Onset of the Pacific War, 1933–1941 |editor1-first=G Kurt |editor1-last=Piehler |editor2-first=Sidney |editor2-last=Pash |title=The United States and the Second World War: New Perspectives on Diplomacy, War, and the Home Front |year=2010 |pages=38–67}}.</ref> Foreign-imposed regime change is sometimes used by states as a foreign policy tool.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Peic|first=Goran|date=July 2011|title=Foreign-Imposed Regime Change, State Power and Civil War Onset, 1920-2004|journal=British Journal of Political Science|volume=41|issue=3|pages=453–475|doi=10.1017/s0007123410000426|s2cid=154222973}}</ref> According to a dataset by Alexander Downes, 120 leaders have been removed through foreign-imposed regime change between 1816 and 2011.<ref name=":0" />

During the [[Cold War]], the [[United States]] and the [[Soviet Union]] frequently intervened in elections and engaged in attempts at regime change, both covertly and overtly.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Levin|first=Dov H.|date=2019-01-01|title=Partisan electoral interventions by the great powers: Introducing the PEIG Dataset|journal=Conflict Management and Peace Science|language=en|volume=36|issue=1|pages=88–106|doi=10.1177/0738894216661190|s2cid=157114479|issn=0738-8942}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=O'Rourke|first=Lindsey A.|date=2019-11-29|title=The Strategic Logic of Covert Regime Change: US-Backed Regime Change Campaigns during the Cold War|journal=Security Studies|volume=29|pages=92–127|doi=10.1080/09636412.2020.1693620|s2cid=213588712|issn=0963-6412}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Levin|first=Dov H.|date=2016-06-01|title=When the Great Power Gets a Vote: The Effects of Great Power Electoral Interventions on Election Results|url=https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/60/2/189/1750842|journal=International Studies Quarterly|language=en|volume=60|issue=2|pages=189–202|doi=10.1093/isq/sqv016|issn=0020-8833|doi-access=free|url-access=subscription}}</ref><ref name="wapodov">Levin, Dov H. (7 September 2016). [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/07/sure-the-u-s-and-russia-often-meddle-in-foreign-elections-does-it-matter/?tid=a_inl "Sure, the U.S. and Russia often meddle in foreign elections. Does it matter?"]. ''[[The Washington Post]]''. Retrieved 21 May 2019.</ref> According to [[Michael Poznansky]], covert regime change became more common when non-intervention was codified into international law, leading states that wanted to engage in regime change to do so covertly and conceal their violations of international law.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Poznansky |first=Michael |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=bXXnDwAAQBAJ |title=In the Shadow of International Law: Secrecy and Regime Change in the Postwar World |date=2020 |publisher=Oxford University Press |isbn=978-0-19-009661-8 |language=en}}</ref>

Modern examples of regime-change include the [[United States invasion of Afghanistan|2001 invasion of Afghanistan]] and the [[2003 invasion of Iraq]].

=== Regime promotion ===
According to [[John Owen IV]], there are four historical waves of forcible regime promotion:<ref>{{Cite book|author=John M. Owen IV|url=https://muse.jhu.edu/book/30639|title=The Clash of Ideas in World Politics: Transnational Networks, States, and Regime Change, 1510-2010|date=2010|publisher=Princeton University Press|isbn=978-1-4008-3676-5}}</ref>

# [[Catholic Church|Catholicism]] vs [[Protestantism]]: From the 1520s to the early 18th century
# [[Republicanism]] vs [[Constitutional monarchy]] vs [[Absolute monarchy]]: From the 1770s to the late 19th century
# [[Communism]] vs [[Socialism]] vs [[Capitalism]]: From the late 1910s to the 1980s
# [[Islamism]] vs [[Secularism]]: post-1990

== Impact ==
Studies by Alexander Downes, [[Lindsey O'Rourke]] and Jonathan Monten indicate that foreign-imposed regime change seldom reduces the likelihood of civil war,<ref name=":0" /> violent removal of the newly imposed leader,<ref name=":0" /> and the probability of conflict between the intervening state and its adversaries,<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Downes|first1=Alexander B.|last2=O'Rourke|first2=Lindsey A.|date=2016|title=You Can't Always Get What You Want: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Seldom Improves Interstate Relations|url=https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/41/2/43-89/12142|journal=International Security|language=en|volume=41|issue=2|pages=43–89|doi=10.1162/ISEC_a_00256|s2cid=52994000|issn=0162-2889|url-access=subscription}}</ref><ref name=":0" /> as well as does not increase the likelihood of [[democratization]] (unless regime change comes with pro-democratic institutional changes in countries with favorable conditions for democracy).<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Downes|first1=Alexander B.|last2=Monten|first2=Jonathan|date=2013|title=Forced to Be Free? Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Rarely Leads to Democratization|url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/24480621|journal=International Security|volume=37|issue=4|pages=90–131|doi=10.1162/ISEC_a_00117|jstor=24480621|s2cid=3640183|issn=0162-2889|url-access=subscription}}</ref> Downes argues,<ref name=":0" /><blockquote>The strategic impulse to forcibly oust antagonistic or non-compliant regimes overlooks two key facts. First, the act of overthrowing a foreign government sometimes causes its military to disintegrate, sending thousands of armed men into the countryside where they often wage an insurgency against the intervener. Second, externally-imposed leaders face a domestic audience in addition to an external one, and the two typically want different things. These divergent preferences place imposed leaders in a quandary: taking actions that please one invariably alienates the other. Regime change thus drives a wedge between external patrons and their domestic protégés or between protégés and their people. </blockquote>Research by Nigel Lo, Barry Hashimoto, and [[Dan Reiter]] has contrasting findings, as they find that interstate "peace following wars last longer when the war ends in foreign-imposed regime change."<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Lo|first1=Nigel|last2=Hashimoto|first2=Barry|last3=Reiter|first3=Dan|date=2008|title=Ensuring Peace: Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Postwar Peace Duration, 1914–2001|url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/ensuring-peace-foreignimposed-regime-change-and-postwar-peace-duration-19142001/DC9CEE80C77B67351DCB867E77F3843F|journal=International Organization|language=en|volume=62|issue=4|pages=717–736|doi=10.1017/S0020818308080259|s2cid=154513807|issn=1531-5088|url-access=subscription}}</ref> However, research by Reiter and Goran Peic finds that foreign-imposed regime change can raise the probability of civil war.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Peic|first1=Goran|last2=Reiter|first2=Dan|date=2011|title=Foreign-Imposed Regime Change, State Power and Civil War Onset, 1920–2004|url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/abs/foreignimposed-regime-change-state-power-and-civil-war-onset-19202004/1226DBF6E9E9DA97534FD3D91A1702F7|journal=British Journal of Political Science|language=en|volume=41|issue=3|pages=453–475|doi=10.1017/S0007123410000426|s2cid=154222973|issn=1469-2112|url-access=subscription}}</ref>

== By country ==
* [[Russian involvement in regime change]]
* [[Soviet involvement in regime change]]
* [[United States involvement in regime change]]
** [[United States involvement in regime change in Latin America]]

==See also==
{{div col|colwidth=30em}}
* [[Active measures]] (in Soviet Union and Russia)
* [[Color revolution]]
* [[Covert operations]]
* [[Democracy promotion]]
* [[Export of revolution]]
* [[List of CIA controversies]]
* [[Peaceful transition of power]]
* [[Rollback]]
* [[State collapse]]
{{div col end}}

==References==
{{Reflist}}

==Further reading==
* {{cite book |last1=Downes |first1=Alexander B. |title=Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong |date=2021 |publisher=Cornell University Press |isbn=978-1-5017-6115-7 |language=en}}

==External links==
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20070122124301/http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_701709420/regime_change.html Encarta Dictionary]
* [http://www.wordspy.com/words/regimechange.asp Word Spy: Regime Change] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140726114103/http://www.wordspy.com/words/regimechange.asp |date=2014-07-26 }}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Regime change}}
[[Category:1925 introductions]]
[[Category:1920s neologisms]]
[[Category:Causes of war]]
[[Category:Aftermath of war]]
[[Category:Changes in political power]]
[[Category:Revolution terminology]]